Dark Forest Theory: Where Are the Aliens?

The Dark Forest theory becomes an attempt to produce an answer to the Fermi Paradox, a scientific problem named after the physicist Enrico Fermi. In short, this paradox deals with why, statistically, there should be at least 10 thousand alien civilizations in total, 20 of which are close to us, but why we have not encountered any of them until now. These numbers are derived from the Drake equation, developed by astronomer Franke Drake in 1961. This equation estimates how many civilizations there should be in our galaxy, taking into account the many factors that could play a role in the development of civilizations.

The life assumptions featured in The Dark Forest are as follows: living organisms want to survive—they are motivated to survive—and it is impossible to know the true intentions of other creatures. With no assurance that this will be a peaceful encounter, exterminating other species before they even have a chance to attack you is the safest course of action. This also explains why an alien civilization chooses to remain silent, reducing the risk, for example, of later learning that human beings are aggressive. The novel also raises the issue of limited resources. A civilization that plans to continue its expansion in the universe will have to compete with other intelligent life forms for limited resources. Once this assumption is made, we no longer even need to think of other species as being aggressive. We are always putting the species on our planet in danger of extinction, and we do this not out of hatred but simply out of need for resources.

"The universe is a dark forest. Every civilization is an armed hunter, hiding like a ghost among the trees, gently pushing the branches in front of it to the side and trying to move forward without making a sound. Even breathing is done carefully. The hunter has to be careful because there are invisible hunters like himself all over the forest. If he finds another creature—another hunter, an angel or a demon, a defenseless baby or an old man walking with difficulty, a fairy or a demigod—there is only one thing he can do: open fire and destroy them. "Hell in this forest is other people. It is an eternal threat that all life forms that show their existence will be quickly wiped out from history. This is the picture of cosmic civilization. This is the explanation of the Fermi Paradox." --An excerpt from Liu's Novel.

The problems of the theory

Here we run into one of the problems with this theory. Is a civilization possible that has always been completely hidden and silent? And if there is such a civilization, can such silence be possible for long periods of time? If there were an alien civilization in our galaxy looking for signs of life, they would have already located Earth and decided to attack. Unless, of course, they have already detected the world and are not hiding in the darkness of the night by patiently observing us. Another flaw of the Dark Forest theory is that these alien civilizations do not consider the value of alliance formation. As a species that must unite to ensure interstellar travel success, they must understand the potential benefits of cooperation and the possibility of trade— not only resource but also information exchange. In retrospect, we see that the possibility of forming alliances did not prevent people from fighting each other. Liu responds to this criticism by raising a chain of doubt. Even if the two communities were able to communicate with each other, there would be great distances to be overcome, both physically and culturally and linguistically. If the other civilization were younger and not thought to pose a threat at first glance, however, the distance and time span between the two worlds would still create uncertainty about how quickly the other civilization developed. Technology does not progress in a straight line. On the contrary, it increases exponentially, and today's harmless and youthful civilization may become a threat by leaps and bounds.

With so much to lose, it's easy to see why alien lifeforms think communication is such a big risk.

Scientists considering this possible scenario are not limited to David Brin. Stephen Hawking and dozens of other scientists have also warned against looking for alien life forms so boldly. To prevent humans from actively sending signals into space, sharing information about us and our location. This raises the question of whose decision it is whether we try to communicate with alien lifeforms or not. Who can decide on behalf of our planet as a whole?

The Dark Forest theory is a study of life on earth: how we treat each other, our propensity for aggression and cooperation, our capacity to consider and ignore life. The Dark Forest theory applies these properties much farther—into the depths of space that could harbor lifeforms with a similar thinking and behavior pattern as we do. The thing that can console us as we walk the streets of the world at night is that we can use our humanity even if we meet another human being. We can all understand our desires and fears. But the same may not be the case for alien civilizations. Would it be better if they had a similar build to us, or should we find a different race under those streetlights? Maybe we'll find a kinder and smarter community than we are. Maybe we can't find it.

by:Yunus Emre Eşkin